General director of “Gidrostroyinvest”
A responsible decision of management is result of a compromise that takes into account many criteria, requirements, restrictions, unformalizable factors, expert estimates and judgments. Therefore optimization models (stemming from one criterion or of strictly ranked sequence of formalized criteria) were not as successful as they were expected in the initial period of computerization of management.
The central problem of management decision-making is absence of objective indices, for instance, risk of choosing development strategy of an enterprise, products marketing, consequences of setting certain economic and technical standards and so on. In these cases experts make judgments according to the available heterogeneous and non-coordinated data, fixed stereotypes (experience), and personal and group preferences, character traits and the like. Decision-makers know very well that they cannot ignore this information, but they should handle it carefully.
Mathematical models of decision-making in the field managerial, technological, and economic systems (including projects management) are usually based on the utility hypothesis, the extreme of which means the best choice from the point of view of this person. However groups or even association of people as a result of the compromise of their interests often prepares important decisions.
The objective of the systems analysis is to translate into the mathematical language intuitive information that experts have. To do this there are developed various expert systems, systems of decisions support during the computer-user dialogue; information is indirectly obtained and is transformed into formalized information in the database, while manlike no coordinate judgments on complicated subjects are disclosed.
Development of the system of mathematical maintenance of estimation, analysis and choice of decisions must have a hierarchical structure, which includes at least two levels:
At the upper level there is accumulated all numerical and qualitative information, available at the moment, there is made expert logical multicriteria analysis and choice of decisions on the basis of analysis, selection study and coordination of expert judgments and estimates received by optimization and other computational procedures (particularly by processing statistical data);
— At the second level there are various researches of private mathematically formalized optimization tasks, researches of decisions stability for the system as a whole, its separate subsystems and objects for certain functioning stages of the projected system (in particular, researches of its reliability, reservation methods, dynamics of functioning and the like).
To develop mathematical models and system analysis algorithms of management and technological-organizing activity in building there are to be solved the following tasks:
To analyze current approaches and methods to model organizing, technological, and management activity in building, to work out automated engineering systems for organizing, technological, and management processes within the investment project;
To work out methodology of analysis and choice of structure of projects management organizations based on expert information;
— To work out mathematical models of management activity;
To study and work out systems of criteria and elements of program- method complex to analyze efficiency of complex building of different types of projects.
To work out systems of automated engineering of technological- organizing and managerial activity of building companies.
Systems analysis of technological-organizing and managerial activity in building enables to shorten the time of building and assembling works, to reduce expenses for consumed material and technical resources with the use of obtained approaches to estimate efficiency of investment projects, and to reach high technological organizing reliability of the taken project decisions.